Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics
Identifieur interne : 004829 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004828; suivant : 004830Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics
Auteurs : Eduardo Massad [Brésil, Royaume-Uni] ; Marcelo N. Burattini [Brésil] ; Luis F. Lopez [Brésil] ; Francisco A. B. Coutinho [Brésil]Source :
- Medical Hypotheses [ 0306-9877 ] ; 2005.
Abstract
In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number,
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09.029
PubMed: 15893110
PubMed Central: 7116954
Affiliations:
- Brésil, Royaume-Uni
- Angleterre, Grand Londres, État de São Paulo
- Londres, São Paulo
- Université de São Paulo
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Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de São Paulo</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, Marcelo N" sort="Burattini, Marcelo N" uniqKey="Burattini M" first="Marcelo N." last="Burattini">Marcelo N. Burattini</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de São Paulo</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, Luis F" sort="Lopez, Luis F" uniqKey="Lopez L" first="Luis F." last="Lopez">Luis F. Lopez</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de São Paulo</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, Francisco A B" sort="Coutinho, Francisco A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F" first="Francisco A. B." last="Coutinho">Francisco A. B. Coutinho</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff1">School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, The University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de São Paulo</region><settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de São Paulo</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Medical Hypotheses</title><idno type="ISSN">0306-9877</idno><idno type="eISSN">1532-2777</idno><imprint><date when="2005">2005</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><p>In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, were 1.2 for Hong Kong and 1.32 for Toronto (Canada). The model projects that, in the absence of control, the final number of cases would be 320,000 in Hong Kong and 36,900 in Toronto (Canada). In contrast, with control measures, which reduce the contact rate to about 25% of its initial value, the expected final number of cases is reduced to 1778 in Hong Kong and 226 in Toronto (Canada). Although SARS can be a devastating infection, early recognition, prompt isolation, and appropriate precaution measures, can be very effective to limit its spread.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, R M" uniqKey="Anderson R">R.M. Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Keyfitz, N" uniqKey="Keyfitz N">N. Keyfitz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Caswell, H" uniqKey="Caswell H">H. Caswell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Amaku, M" uniqKey="Amaku M">M. Amaku</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coutinho, F A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F">F.A.B. Coutinho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Azevedo, R S" uniqKey="Azevedo R">R.S. Azevedo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burattini, M N" uniqKey="Burattini M">M.N. 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Hsu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shen, Z" uniqKey="Shen Z">Z. Shen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ning, F" uniqKey="Ning F">F. Ning</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, W G" uniqKey="Zhou W">W.G. Zhou</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, X" uniqKey="He X">X. He</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, C Y" uniqKey="Lin C">C.Y. Lin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chin, D P" uniqKey="Chin D">D.P. Chin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Brésil</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li><li>État de São Paulo</li></region><settlement><li>Londres</li><li>São Paulo</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de São Paulo</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Brésil"><region name="État de São Paulo"><name sortKey="Massad, Eduardo" sort="Massad, Eduardo" uniqKey="Massad E" first="Eduardo" last="Massad">Eduardo Massad</name></region><name sortKey="Burattini, Marcelo N" sort="Burattini, Marcelo N" uniqKey="Burattini M" first="Marcelo N." last="Burattini">Marcelo N. Burattini</name><name sortKey="Coutinho, Francisco A B" sort="Coutinho, Francisco A B" uniqKey="Coutinho F" first="Francisco A. B." last="Coutinho">Francisco A. B. Coutinho</name><name sortKey="Lopez, Luis F" sort="Lopez, Luis F" uniqKey="Lopez L" first="Luis F." last="Lopez">Luis F. Lopez</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Massad, Eduardo" sort="Massad, Eduardo" uniqKey="Massad E" first="Eduardo" last="Massad">Eduardo Massad</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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